Quarterly Rebalance Commentary

Overview

 

Quarterly Rebalance Commentary You’d be forgiven for thinking that anything other than the US election took place over the last three months. Blue states, red counties, polling, betting, Elon Musk – it’s felt more pervasive than any prior election. Imagine if the US devoted a similar amount of attention to UK General Elections as we do to theirs; “y’all hear the new constituency of Gorton and Denton voted Labour? Sure looks tough for that Richie Sunak guy – but great for Keith Starmer I guess”.

 

Let’s not jump straight into the US election then.

 

Over the last three months, interest rates have fallen everywhere. Yet, over that period, government bond yields have risen. Here in the UK, at the end of September the 10-year gilt had a yield of 3.75%; yet now it’s around 4.5%, despite a 0.25% cut in rates over that time. The same is true in the US and Europe. What’s happening?

 

Lots of investors had become overexcited about how quickly rates were falling and had expected the pace to continue. As rates fall, government bonds perform strongly, so lots of money has been sucked in. So, when central bankers started using words like ‘cautious’ and ‘slowing’ and ‘higher rates for some time’ that money flooded back out again.

 

We’d always said that rates would stay higher than most were hoping (it’s the only way to crush inflation), but we’ve never really thought of government bonds as a way to make a quick buck. We’ll ride out the daily or weekly ups and downs, knowing that bonds are there for when times get really tough.

 

The arguments over whether Donald Trump’s win was predictable ahead of time will rumble on for a long time; probably about four years – until the next cycle. And there’s a similar level of uncertainty about the impact of the outcome on financial markets.

 

Back to bonds; lots of commentators have been talking about the potential increase in US debt on the back of Trump’s victory, possibly impacting the US bond market as a safe haven. We’re not too worried about it. No one is suggesting the US won’t be able to pay back a higher debt load, and – perhaps more importantly – where else are you going to go? Developed governments all around the world are all in the same boat. When trouble comes, bonds will still deliver.

 

In the equity space, it’s still far too soon to have an opinion on what will and won’t do well under Trump 2.0. The policies are all still nebulous, and simply shouting “business confidence” doesn’t actually give businesses confidence. Tax cuts and tariffs? Crypto and climate? Migration and military involvement? Too soon to tell; and with a healthy diversified chunk of US companies in portfolios, we’ll have exposure to the winners.

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Core Investment Views

 

After more than a decade of lurching from one financial crisis to another, the markets are gradually remembering how economic cycles work.

 

In those cycles, the economic world spends most of the time between extremes. There will be a mixture of good and bad data, and policy responses; but only rarely will these result in large market shifts.

 

Over the next twelve months, we expect:

 

Economic growth to be positive but slowing as the lagged impact of rate rises comes through. We wouldn’t be surprised to see US GDP growth at 2%, rather than 2.3%, for example.

 

Inflation to keep falling, but only because interest rates don’t. We’ve consistently said that central banks are going to make sure that inflation is crushed, before they start to really cut interest rates. And the end destination for rates isn’t zero. Looks like the market is getting the message.

 

So how should we invest for a world which isn’t at extremes?

 

Well. Basically. Like a duck.

 

It might sound a little silly, but hear us out. Think of a duck simply bobbing along on the current, riding over the little waves which come along, swimming out of the way of any obstacles. If necessary, it can take off and fly – or disappear under the water altogether. But most of the time, it doesn’t need to do anything extreme to get where it needs to go and do what it needs to do.

 

We think that’s the same with our portfolios. We want to allow market forces to work, to get our investments where they need to go. So, for most of the economic cycle, we let the smaller waves pass by. We don’t need to start flapping our wings or diving down (although it doesn’t mean we’re not alert!).

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Asset allocation changes

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At the November model rebalance, 7IM has taken a number of actions:

 

• Added to equity allocations, taking our exposure to neutral vs long-term SAA, while also trimming government bonds back towards neutral. The 7IM quantitative macro dashboard suggests that neutral is a reasonable place to be, given the blend of positive and negative economic and market signals.

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• We have increased our US equal weight position after a minor trim to healthcare and closing out the climate change position. This reduces idiosyncratic equity risk in an uncertain policy environment, and instead opted for the more reliable equal-weight diversification approach.

 

Manager changes

 

This quarter we have added the following holdings to portfolios:

 

• Amundi Index MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund to provide a more cost-efficient exposure to Emerging Market equities within growth portfolios

 

• Vanguard UK Investment Grade Bond Fund to provide a cost-effective solution to access GBP-denominated Corporate Bonds for growth portfolios.

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